The Indian cricket board may rake in Rs 6,500 crore to Rs 7,500 crore from selling the separate TV and digital rights for India’s home games, but the base price this time is 25 percent lower per match than in the earlier cycle, Elara Capital has said.

“We expect the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) to garner 1.6- 1.9x of base price (approximately 32 percent higher than earlier cycle rights on a like- to-like basis, as the number of matches has come off by 15 percent vs the earlier cycle), as the current base at Rs 450 million per match is already 25 percent lower than the last cycle’s price of Rs 600 million,” analyst Karan Taurani wrote in a report, according to Economic Times.

The combined base price of TV and digital stands at Rs 3,960 crore for 88 matches to be played in the next five year cycle of 2023-2028. The TV and digital rights carry base price of Rs 20 crore and Rs 25 crore per match, respectively, Elara noted.

Elara said the BCCI expects at least Rs 60 crore per game at the auction, which translates into a base price of Rs 5,280 crore via the eAuction process, according to the Economic Times reported.

“It may cancel the process if the numbers are not breached,” Taurani said.

The brokerage expects the premium to be higher than the base price for digital, with a TV rights premium of 30-40 percent over the base price and a digital rights premium of 80-90 percent, resulting in a per match price of Rs 80 crore (TV and digital).

“We believe this pricing is justified as it will give platforms an opportunity to breakeven or turn profitable. India’s ad environment may turn conducive in CY24, led by profitable new age & commerce firms, inflationary pressures cooling off and emergence of Meta, Web 3.0 & 5G,” Taurani said.

Star Sports India outbid Reliance and Sony for the BCCI media rights for both television and digital platforms in 2018, paying Rs 6138.1 crore. The rights were valid from 2018 to 2023.

Disney Star, which has a variety of sports channels in SD and HD format and offers commentary in regional languages, has the exclusive rights to broadcast and stream all ICC events on TV and on its digital platform. It also has the rights for the Asia Cup till this year. Given its large footprint, cutting-edge technology, and years of experience, the broadcaster has long been a popular choice for sports media rights.

The big media companies including Disney Star, Reliance-owned Viacom 18 and perhaps even Sony, which is awaiting a merger with Zee, are likely up on toes to grab the media rights for India’s bilateral matches to be played in the country for 2023-2028 period.

While India’s games are valuable assets, this comes at a time when Disney Star and Reliance Jio have spent a total of Rs 48,390 crore for IPL’s separate television and digital coverage; the first time the BCCI has split the rights.

Elara explained that the sharp increase in IPL media rights prices (like-to-like) was due to higher inflation in cricket pricing than other genres (0.8x growth over a five-year period at a CAGR of 12-13 percent), firms participating in the digital bidding process, including global OTT giants, and scarcity premium, as cricket is an important strategy for any platform to increase scale on digital.

“However, the BCCI is keeping the base price lower at 25 percent than the price of the past cycle, which indicates likely low demand and wanting to attract interest from platforms. Premium in these media rights could be lower than the earlier cycle, due to 1) fewer platforms bidding, 2) curtailed ad spend of new age & commerce firms, and 3) IPL revenue decline of 20-25 percent YoY in CY23 (TV and digital),” it said.