There is an inherent feeling  that the actual figure is far more damaging than this reported figure of 59.9 million of Indian DTH base ( by the end of Sept 24)as this  includes the subscribers who have been inactive or temporarily suspended for not more than 90 days as well.

This figure was 64.18 million a year ago in Sept 23 Secondly if the current churn trend of the Industry is factored in for the quarter Oct 24-Dec 24 as well, then the 2025 figures will be less than even approx 57 million active base for DTH.

Similar will be a trend for Cable TV ( which might be going downward to around 50 million-52 million by year end )

Positives for 2025 :

TV households : They  are estimated to increase from 320 mn to 340 mn. So a good oppprtunity for the entire ecosystem .

Connected TV: Currently  CTVs estimated reach is around 40 mn households and this number is expected to grow significantly with projections suggesting it could reach around 50 million by end of 2025 .

DD FreeDish :  Expected to increase from current estimated 45 million and touch 50 million by year end.

‘TV Dark’ Homes  – There will be a reduction of Approx 5 mn ‘TV Dark’ households  from the current 100 million + TV Dark households .

Future Outlook for DTH/ Cable TV: 

It’s time the key stakeholders in the Industry value chain ( esp DTH+ Cable TV players , Broadcasters ,LCOs, Hardware manufacturers etc ) come together, put their collaborative thinking Hats on and make the players shift their focus from poaching each other’s existing stbs …and align their minds to find some Innovative, constructive, Out Of the Box ideas for a huge opportunity still up for grabs :

# With rapid electrification of rural areas, deep penetration of Digital transactions for online payments , rising affluence amongst people , more proliferation of 5G network, expected sale of approx 18 mn to 20 mn new TVs in the year  , ….. fresh ideation is needed for

# upconverting DD FreeDish universe ( estimated to  touch approx 50 million)

# target 100 million plus  ‘TV Dark’ homes .

Put together it has a humongous 150 million + market.

DTH / Cable TV Industry players can look to explore :

1) Pooling in resources by making a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to have a focused approach to tap the huge above mentioned 150 million plus market of Free Dish + ‘TV Dark’ households

2) Rather than spending huge amounts of money in buying fresh stbs and using it for free swapping of each other’s existing  stbs, divert these funds to onboard part of this 150 million plus opportunity.

3) Explore Public-Private model in subsidizing hardware for below poverty line households ( TV plus stbs/ TV with inbuilt receivers) for addressing the TV Dark market .

4) Try synergising with Prasar Bharti when it plans the conversion of the entire mammoth base to an Addressable one ( if recommendations of TRAI are accepted ).

5) Offer stbs at a one time cost ( with some margin to LCO ) with inbuilt FTA content for a 2/3 years for rural / upcountry/ hilly/ remote mkts with no recurring monthly subscription .

6) Customised exclusive content for urban up-market subscribers.

7) Collaborate with broadcasters for small cost effective regional packs esp to lure low ARPU, BPL DD Freedish universe / rural base and try activate the huge inactive inventory.

8) Explore infra / platform sharing amongst players  incl DHEs/ telco Links/ last mile connectivity for full/ partial services .  Barter/ exchange of unviable territories/ links

9) Follow up for dedicated Tax / other benefits  for TV/ hardware manufactures under various Govt – Industry initiatives/ schemes .

Just a food for thought to get things going before it’s too late.

(Sunil Punj is a veteran of electronic Media Distribution Industry)