According to an India TV-CNX opinion survey aired today, the opposition party Congress may emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka assembly elections, although it may fall eight seats short of a clear majority.

The opinion poll projections show, Congress may win 105 seats in the 224-seat assembly, while the ruling BJP may win 85 seats, followed by Janata Dal Secular (S) which may win 32 seats. ‘Others’ may win two seats.

BJP emerged as single largest party in 2018

In the 2018 elections, the BJP won 104 seats, the Congress won 80, the JD(S) won 37, and ‘Others’ won three.

According to predictions, the Congress may receive 40.32 percent of the vote, the BJP 35.5 percent, the JD(S) 17.81 percent, and ‘Others’ 6.37 percent. In the 2018 elections, Congress received 38.04 percent of the vote, the BJP received 36.22 percent, the JD(S) received 18.36 percent, and ‘Others’ received 7.38 percent.

Caste, Community wise vote share

According to predictions, Congress may receive 75.3 percent of Kuruba votes, 15.11 percent of Lingayat votes, 17.57 percent of Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 SC votes, 34.58 percent of OBC votes, 42.35 percent of ST votes, and 78 percent of Muslim votes.

On the other side, the BJP may receive 15.14 percent of Kuruba votes, 75.8 percent of Lingayat votes, 17.39 percent of Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 percent of SC votes, 51.7 percent of OBC votes, 32.18 percent of ST votes, and only 2.07 percent of votes. According to projections, the JD(S) may receive 56 percent of the Vokkaliga votes.

Region Wise Projections

According to India TV-CNX poll forecasts, the BJP and Congress may share 15 seats each in Greater Bangalore (32 seats altogether), while the JD(S) may receive two seats.

The BJP may win 13 of the 21 seats in Central Karnataka, while the Congress may win eight.

With a total of 40 seats in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the Congress may sweep with 32 seats, the BJP with six, and the JD(S) with two.

In Old Mysore, which has 62 seats, the Congress may win 26 seats, the JD(S) may win 28, and the BJP may win only seven. ‘Others’ could win the last seat.

In Coastal Karnataka having 19 seats, BJP may win 15 and the Congress may win 4 seats.

In the Bombay Karnataka region having 50 seats, BJP may win 29, Congress may win 20, and ‘Others’ may win one seat.

Preference for Chief Minister

According to the survey results, Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah lead the list with 32.2 percent of respondents wanting him to be the next CM, followed by incumbent Basavaraj Bommai with 26.83 percent. JD(S) leader and former CM H D Kumaraswamy received 16.37 percent of the vote, while BJP leader and former CM B S Yeddyurappa received 10.97 percent. Only 7% favored Congress leader D K Shivkumar for the position of CM.

CNX conducted an opinion poll survey with 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 of 224 seats. The respondents were chosen at random based on demographic, professional, and migration factors.