According to a report, data adoption and tariff hike-led revenue growth, as well as 5G rollouts, are key monitorable for 2023, which will also be a pivotal year for Vodafone Idea as a viable third player

When adjusted for inflation, the telecom sector’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is still 17 percent lower than before the launch of Reliance Jio. “…we expect Bharti (Airtel) to lead tariff increases to ARPU of Rs 236 by FY25, while Bharti targets Rs 300 ARPU,” said leading brokerage CLSA in its telecom sector report.

When it comes to India’s mobile market, three trends should be on the lookout for in 2023, according to CLSA’s forecast. 5G rollouts and monetization will be among them, driven by high-end subscribers.

“We see multiple events to watch, led by following a 14 percent increase in 2022, India’s mobile sector revenue is expected to grow again in 2023, fueled by tariff increases, increased data penetration, and usage, PTI reported from New Delhi.

CLSA anticipates that Bharti (Airtel) will be the first to raise rates, with VIL (Vodafone Idea Ltd) and Reliance Jio likely to follow.

The financial crisis at VIL has not been averted, with fund-raising delays and the pending conversion of four years’ interest on the spectrum and AGR (Adjusted Gross Revenue) payments into government equity. likely tariff hikes and Reliance Jio’s (RJio’s) much-anticipated IPO,” the firm said.

If allowed, private networks could eat into 5G operators’ enterprise service opportunities.

With VIL’s share declining, Bharti and Jio now control 77 percent of the market and should continue to grow, according to the report.

“VIL fundraising is critical for 4G capex and 5G rollout, while delays could result in additional share losses, which would be gained for RJio and Bharti, which will ramp up 5G rollouts in 2023,” the report added.

The 5G rollout by Jio and Bharti will coincide with increasing subscriber realizations and market share gains.

“We forecast rising ARPU and data penetration to drive a 14 percent CAGR in sector revenue to Rs 2,84,600 crore (USD 36 billion) by FY25,” the company stated.

As per the report, the new telecom bill will be “positive” for VIL.

“VIL, which is currently in a four-year moratorium on government dues, could gain from this regulatory bill, which could have options of write-offs,” the report said.